The Looming Maturity Wall
By: Darya Chernyatin – Financial Institutions Group Investment Associate
Contributing Editors: Nathan Li, Caden Warner
Over $1–3 trillion in corporate debt is set to mature between 2026 and 2028, much of it issued during the ultra-low rate environment of 2020–2021.
Over the next several years, credit markets will face volatility as trillions in corporate debt issued during the 2020–2021 era of ultra-low rates comes due. Global debt maturities are projected to rise from roughly $2 trillion in 2024 to nearly $3 trillion by 2026, showing the scale of the refinancing wave. But in the U.S. alone, about $1.7 trillion of corporate debt is maturing, with roughly 41% classified as high-yield. This “maturity wall” is coming in a fundamentally different macro environment, where refinancing costs have surged and economic growth is less predictable.
The root of this wall lies in pandemic-era borrowing behavior. Companies used their liquidities to extend maturities and add leverage, and gain on near-zero rates. That strategy, which had worked previously, has backfired as it created massive repayment obligations into the mid-2020s. According to the OECD, about 24% of investment-grade and 31% of non-investment-grade corporate debt must be refinanced within three years, and most of it is issued at coupon rates below 4%. Around two-thirds of investment-grade maturities between 2026 and 2028 carry below 4% interest, meaning borrowers will face significantly higher costs upon refinancing.
Higher policy rates and a more risk off lending environment amplify the challenge. The cost of capital across public and private markets has risen and some firms will face double or more their current interest expenses. Bank lenders have pulled back from riskier lending products such as leveraged loans and commercial real estate. Thus, private credit funds have stepped in, but they come with tighter terms, stricter covenants, and a preference for stronger borrowers. At the same time, weaker earnings growth leaves many companies less able to “grow out” of their leverage.
The risks are unevenly distributed. Leveraged loans and high-yield bonds are particularly exposed, as many issuers entered this period with thin margins and high leverage. The 2026–2028 window marks the largest wave of leveraged loan maturities, with over half rated B– or lower. Even small rate increases threaten solvency for these borrowers due to thin margins. The private credit market also shows concern: rapid growth during the low-rate period has left it with high exposure to smaller and less transparent borrowers.
Commercial real estate is a large pressure point. Roughly $930 billion in CRE loans come due in 2026, with more than $4 trillion maturing between 2025 and 2029. The office sector specifically faces particular stress amid weak demand, falling property values, and rising refinancing costs. Within structured credit, over $100 billion in Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities will mature in 2026, and more than half of those loans are already viewed as at risk of default or restructuring.
While this maturity wall is unlikely to trigger a breakdown, it is expected to fuel a period of elevated default activity, tighter credit availability, and repricing of risk across markets. Private equity firms may struggle to exit investments as refinancing constraints compress valuations, while distressed and special-situations investors could see many opportunities. Ultimately, this is not a single event but a multi-year reshaping of global credit dynamics.